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Please describe ER, PR, ELO, rollout, equity, strategy, etc.

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 23 August 2016, at 4:45 p.m.

In Response To: Please describe ER, PR, ELO, rollout, equity, strategy, etc. (Ken Larsen)

You have to read between the lines of what Murat/Jack writes to understand what he's really asking.

One of his complaints is that ER/PR is treated as an absolute measure of how good a play is, when it's really just a measure of deviation from equilibrium. Given that your opponent is also deviating from equilibrium, your "best move" may not be the equilibrium move. The most familiar example of this is that if your opponent is going to drop, then an "incorrect" double may actually be correct.

Murat/Jack is also complaining that the ER/PR difference between Players A and B is not an accurate predictor of the probability that A will beat B, but people seem to take the standard PR-to-Elo conversion formula as gospel.

I've explained to him that these truisms are well known, which is why nobody is interested in betting with him.

So what he's asking here is, if these truisms are well known, then surely there must be a published reference spelling them out in detail?

I will say that I agree with Murat/Jack that far too many players use "best play" to mean "equilibrium play" and that far too many players use the formula "1 PR = 33 Elo" as if it were handed down from heaven on a stone tablet. They should know better.

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