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Please describe ER, PR, ELO, rollout, equity, strategy, etc.

Posted By: Jack Mack
Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2016, at 9:37 a.m.

In Response To: Please describe ER, PR, ELO, rollout, equity, strategy, etc. (Timothy Chow)

..."deviation from equilibrium"...

Hah hah haaaa... It looks like we now have a brand new "academic concept", "equilibrium"!

..."Given that your opponent is also deviating from equilibrium, your "best move" may not be the equilibrium move."...

You are talking about "human vs human" now, while we were talking "Murat vs bot" where the bot does NOT! deviate from "your equilibrium"!!

So, rewind and re-address the issue as one side (i.e. Murat) deviating from the "equilibrium" and the other side (i.e. the bot) not deviating from the "equilibrium".

Again, you are mispresenting what Murat is claiming. He is NOT! "complaining that the ER/PR difference between players A and B is not an accurate predictor of the probability that A will beat B". To the contrary he believes it to be accurate and he is willing to bet on it proportionately. It is you and your likes who don't believe in what you are selling and you all can't put your moneys behind it. If you did, the worst that could happen to you math PHD's and all would be to break even in Murat's bet.

And yes, the odds would be ultimately based/calculated on the ELO difference (with PR converted to ELO difference). If your problem is with that conversion formula, just ask help from others to concoct a better conversion formula, but for Jesus's sake, don't toss away the entire PR with it... :(

..."far too many players use "best play" to mean "equilibrium play"...

I doubt that anybody other than you even heard of "equilibrium play" until now.

..."far too many players use the formula "1 PR = 33 Elo" as if it were handed down from heaven on a stone tablet."...

Okay, well, for being a math PHD who has unconditional trust and support of "far too many players here", whay don't you come up with a more accurate ratio?

What value would you suggest for "N in "1 PR = N ELO"?

Then we can ask Murat if it will be acceptable to him to revise his bet accordingly... :))

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