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OLM Thurs. May 8th - Cube

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 8 May 2008, at 4:40 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. May 8th - Cube (David Rockwell)

A very interesting issue in the position is whether or not Stick can redouble if he has a single shot. That affects our subsequent checker play and possibly this cube decision as well. I'm not sure of the answer to this question. If he can't, then my analysis of the score above may be all wrong. Does anyone else have better vision than I do on this point?

Without gammon chances our takepoint is ~17/60 or ~29%. Depending upon how many checkers we have off when he hits will determine his M&M's. G's increase that, of course, but there aren't a lot of G's so let's call it 32% (or 68% cashpoint for Stick).

Assuming no G-chances for either side, his 2-->4 would take him from 43% to 60% if he wins, from 11% to 0% if loses. Risk 11 to gain 17 which makes his window opening at 11/28 = (1/4 + 1/7) = 39+%. Gammon chances for EITHER side drop his window opening point. 11/36 (worst single shot from his PoV) probably wouldn't even be in the window.

Bottom line is that it's going to depend upon the position -- maybe yes and maybe no.

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