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Luck

Posted By: Florin Popa
Date: Wednesday, 21 September 2016, at 6:19 p.m.

In Response To: Luck (Timothy Chow)

I like your definition of luck. In fact I prefer the use of the word randomness, if it has positive effects in a certain context becomes luck. "Artificial luck" for me is when the model is not perfect, anyway impossibile to be and then the errors of the model are reflected in luck to have a 0 sum. If

I think is interesting to see what XG says what is luck in the repeating position with both on the bar, no human interaction. If no cube in play and you dance you are unlucky and if opponent dances as well you get lucky by same amount (net luck 0) even if for who on roll is much easier to enter. A human can be wrong here saying was unlucky. With cube in play XG says you had some net luck in the end because you can again and should double but a human can reply is not because being the same position you can't expect someone to double and asking where the luck comes from. So the luck looks like has to do with the cube access and the error evaluated by XG, I consider this to be artificial luck. If you can improve your position after a roll that is real luck.

I have noticed the equities shown for the best move and next best cube decision are not the same, sometimes there is a considerable difference. Why ? And why XG can't be precise enough in measuring luck even in a 1p match ? It has all the informations so I expect to find a luck cost very close to 50% for the winner in a match XGRoller++ against itself.

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