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Bar point holding game: cube reference position

Posted By: hominid
Date: Saturday, 24 September 2016, at 9:49 p.m.

In Response To: Bar point holding game: cube reference position (David Levy)

I am not sure what this post is all about." As the roller is worse in the race, the take becomes clear" Another 5 pips added makes no difference, surley thats not a surprise ? This is a good opportunity to show that its all about roll odds. White needs a hit to win. It is easy to count rolls on two hands. Bad rolls for blue are 66,51,42,41,33,32,31,22,21,11 sixteen rolls. Whites chance of hitting are at the least thirteen rolls ,every roll counter will know that. Convert these rolls to %. Easily done when you know the table gives 45% and 37%. Multiply the %'s but take as 40% for convenience gives white a game winning chance of 16%. It is not a surprise that XG agrees with this game winning chance after all BG is all about roll odds. We are now in the realms of MWC. Im not very good at that but use common sense. Blues winning chance is 84% a double for sure. At 5 away I away I reckon MWC would say take. If I was white OTB at them odds I probably drop and stay in the game. At the least with the knowledge one would get the double correct.

I wonder what the point of the post is. I dont beleive that a rollout at 3 ply taking 1.3 secs under different circumstances is to be relied upon.

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