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Do you know your backgammon values?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 4 October 2016, at 12:39 a.m.

In Response To: Do you know your backgammon values? (Timothy Chow)

The bg value is 57/32 ATS, ~ 1.75. If you run off the 23, your MWC are 40%. If you stay and get bg'ed, you lose the match. I think White wins ~ 13% bg's here so you lose 5.2% MWC when that happens. If you stay and hit a shot, you at least save the g. White has 20 shot numbers and you hit 11/36 of these. 12 of his 20 bad numbers leave a 2nd blot on his ace while the other 8 just leave the single blot on his 3-point. I'll guess that you hit and win 2.3 of these (roughly) 6 games and lose a single game the other 3.7. When you hit and win, your MWC are 89% which is a 49% gain. When you hit and lose, your MWC are 57%, a 17% gain.

2.3/36 is ~ 6% while 3.7/36 is ~10%. 6% x 49% + 10% x 17% = ~4.7%.

So running out looks better.

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