Many thanks for the input. I found the size of the equity loss of my play surprising, given the correctness of the double hit with 51. Just shows you how important developing a good positional understanding/intuition is in this game. Thanks again.
the 21 play:
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 97 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 176
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aCC-BAA-----babbCdbaB-:0:0:1:12:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 12 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/4* 5/4 | eq: +0.287 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.48% (G:15.02% B:0.70%)
40.52% (G:18.42% B:2.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.271...+0.302) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23* 6/4* | eq: +0.180 (-0.107) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.08% (G:17.73% B:1.04%)
43.92% (G:24.18% B:2.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.163...+0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| 3. | 1-ply | 10/9 6/4* | eq: -0.269 (-0.556) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.51% (G:9.66% B:0.45%)
51.49% (G:26.36% B:3.38%) | |
|
| 4. | 1-ply | 24/23* 10/8 | eq: -0.276 (-0.563) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.52% (G:11.43% B:0.52%)
53.48% (G:28.81% B:1.61%) | |
|
| 5. | 1-ply | 24/23* 9/7 | eq: -0.350 (-0.636) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.51% (G:10.89% B:0.49%)
54.49% (G:32.24% B:2.29%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
51
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 97 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 176
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aCC-BAA-----babbCdbaB-:0:0:1:15:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 15 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23* 9/4* | eq: +0.204 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.86% (G:18.73% B:1.18%)
44.14% (G:22.67% B:1.69%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.183...+0.225) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/4* 5/4 | eq: +0.144 (-0.060) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.17% (G:14.48% B:0.74%)
44.83% (G:18.59% B:1.96%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.129...+0.160) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 3. | 2-ply | 20/15 5/4* | eq: -0.242 (-0.447) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.12% (G:11.15% B:0.64%)
50.88% (G:28.37% B:4.15%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | 20/15 10/9 | eq: -0.248 (-0.452) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.85% (G:9.21% B:0.35%)
52.15% (G:22.88% B:2.61%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 24/23* 20/15 | eq: -0.266 (-0.471) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.63% (G:11.72% B:0.60%)
53.37% (G:29.75% B:2.70%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10