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Late Game Recube Action

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Sunday, 16 October 2016, at 7:57 a.m.

In Response To: Late Game Recube Action (Stick)

I know that him having 2 on the ace + 2 closed out, with us having an avg. (655) distribution, the T/P decision is on the line with us winning about 78%. His ace gap adds about 1% to our winning chances (just like having perfect 654 distr. would), so closing him out looses our market.

I think our chances to get him to break and get a third checker closed out are too slim to consider. I think his additional chances, flowing from the fact that he's not closed out yet (he can luckbox his way out of the closeout or at least screw up our distribution) are higher than that.

So I think it's too early to double, and I would double later, with a threat of an early close-out (early because I need to aim at a good bear-off distribution). I.e. after a loose-hit/dance sequence, when having a direct cover. Here, I'd wait even after something like 6-4 (played 11/1*), having only 6 covers.

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