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BGonline.org Forums
4th roll position from USBGF OLM -- 51S-31P-65P-33
Posted By: Stick In Response To: 4th roll position from USBGF OLM -- 51S-31P-65P-33 (Jason Lee)
Date: Saturday, 14 January 2017, at 3:08 a.m.
Very recently I saw this play come up and it is the same idea.
White is ngupowered
score: 0
pip: 1457 point match pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is RyotaroXGID=---BB-CbB---cD---e-e-A--A-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:7:10 Blue to play 43
1. XG Roller+ 13/6 eq: +0.122
Player:
Opponent:51.99% (G:14.10% B:0.38%)
48.01% (G:9.44% B:0.26%)2. XG Roller+ 24/21 13/9 eq: +0.062 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:51.00% (G:8.51% B:0.19%)
49.00% (G:5.87% B:0.14%)3. 4-ply 21/14 eq: +0.074 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:51.49% (G:11.06% B:0.26%)
48.51% (G:9.02% B:0.24%)4. 4-ply 24/21 6/2 eq: +0.036 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:50.40% (G:7.83% B:0.13%)
49.60% (G:5.97% B:0.14%)5. 3-ply 8/5 8/4 eq: +0.035 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:50.06% (G:14.31% B:0.34%)
49.94% (G:11.24% B:0.37%)eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
If we anchor up the opponent has zero bad rolls from now until eternity. It's simply a race waiting to happen where he plays all his poor rolls behind us. If however we stay split all of a sudden there are a good deal of numbers that leave a shot when we have a strong board and he has no board. [65 63 62 54 51] and the numbers that stack [52 43 32 41] are no bargain as he'll face the same problem only greater next turn.
As already mentioned, 65@ would be preferred for the nactation where @ = anchor but 65P would be understood.
Stick
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