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hum! how to evaluate such position

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 14 May 2008, at 1:19 a.m.

In Response To: hum! how to evaluate such position (Alex213)

I don't agree that your opponent did not have a double (neither does the very short Snowie rolloug), but let me guess that you're wondering why it's a take when you're down in pips 67 to 80 and in danger of being hit.

1. The race isn't as quite as bad as it looks, although if racing was your only way of winning, you should still pass. White's stacks on the 2 and 3 points are wasteful, as are the empty 5 and 1 points.

2. Contact favors you.

Pick'n'pass numbers: 6/36, 4-1 4-2 4-3. Pointing numbers: 2/36, 4-4 2-2. Switching numbers: 1/36, 1-1. That's the bad news.

Hit loose numbers: 2/36, 6-4, which leaves 13/36 hits. Numbers that leave a shot without hitting: 4/36, 6-6 6-5 5-5 -- big swing for you on these, getting 11/36 winning hits on White's best racing numbers. Wasteful numbers: 6/36 or more: 6-3 5-4 3-1. If White has to play behind you, perhaps clearing the 5 point before the 8 point, or stripping the 8 point, you rate to get more shots two or three rolls from now. You can afford to wait, since you have two other outfield checkers that can be usefully moved while you wait.

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