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Help with cube decision please

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Sunday, 5 February 2017, at 4:54 p.m.

In Response To: Help with cube decision please (Phil Simborg)

I would start counting pips. Ahead in the raw pip count, I'd figure to be about even as White if I enter on the first attempt (for simplicity no matter whether that anchors or hits). That brings me almost to the takepoint already (15.3%) and additional chances must take me over by a good margin, so I'd clearly and quickly take.

If I would need to estimate GWC exactly, I would start with the above, note that for each roll I don't enter my chances drop rapidly, because Blue will catch up and get ahead in the race, Blue will build landing points, and Blue may have put a second on the bar with a pick and pass. I'd add 50% of the chances after entering on the first roll and would get about 23%. This is gut feel as I don't have a way of justifying the 50% I used.

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