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Another semi-run decision

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Wednesday, 5 April 2017, at 8:58 p.m.

In Response To: Another semi-run decision (Timothy Chow)

With ca. 26% bgs on stay and 14% on run, it's 12% difference.

If we stay and close:

- we win 1,7% (8,5% for hit, times 19% for 1 closed out with ace gap for White)

- we save 8,5% gammons (pretty much all hits)

Bg value is 1 and g value is 0.5, so the difference is 0.5, so the 12% bgs (that are "transformed" from g losses which they would normally be) translate into 6% losses.

We win 1.7%, plus save 0.5 x 8,5% for a total of 5.95%.

Both plays seem quite close, way too close for me to dare to pick the better one.

But the question was about stay&slot.

Let's estimate how much more we can win if we make this play and try for a second checker. I'd say it's quite a low chance. We have just one gap, and just a 3-prime to work with (possibly a broken 4-prime soon if we cover the 8), and he has to come in, expose, then we have to hit the straggler, he has to return hit, then we have to hit the second checker. Quite a long list of conditions to fulfill.

After stay&close we win 1,7%. I'm not even sure we win more by slotting, but even if we do, I'd be quite surprised if it was more than 2%.

And then we don't save all the 8,5% gammons, because sometimes (often?) he escapes and run through the minefield for a gammon win.

For the the plays to be equal, we'd have to loose 0.6% gammons more (since we win 0.3% more, tops). My guess is that we loose more than that, so stay&slot is inferior to stay&close for money.

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