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Which point to break? #1 - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 15 April 2017, at 1:09 p.m.

In Response To: Which point to break? #1 (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
Unlimited Game
pip: 81
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBD-B-----------b-bbbbEd-:1:1:-1:41:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout1Bar/21 4/3eq: +1,036
Player:
Opponent:		85,35% (G:38,40% B:1,20%)
14,65% (G:1,04% B:0,02%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,033...+1,038) - [100,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 6/5eq: +1,025 (-0,010)
Player:
Opponent:		85,37% (G:37,57% B:1,12%)
14,63% (G:1,12% B:0,02%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,023...+1,028) - [0,0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout2Bar/21 5/4eq: +0,995 (-0,041)
Player:
Opponent:		84,48% (G:36,76% B:1,01%)
15,52% (G:1,13% B:0,02%)		Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,990...+0,999) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds
4.Rollout3Bar/21 8/7eq: +0,949 (-0,086)
Player:
Opponent:		82,16% (G:38,55% B:1,36%)
17,84% (G:2,34% B:0,05%)		Conf.: ± 0,010 (+0,940...+0,959) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

8/7 surrenders too many wins. If White hits, he might flood the outfield, which is dangerous for our 3 blots due to him still owning a 4pt. board. He breaks his board with 13 rolls after this play (31, 41, 32, 42, 43, 22, 33, 44).

Out of our board breaking plays:
4/3 breaks his board next turn with 14 rolls (31, 41, 42, 43, 63, 64, 33, 44)
5/4 does it with only 8 rolls (41, 42, 64, 22, 44)
6/5 also does it with only 8 rolls (31, 32, 63, 22, 33)

It's interesting to see how the better mobility of high spares after 6/5 makes it really close to 4/3 even though it breaks White's board with 6 fewer shots next turn. I'm guessing there is also some significant value in keeping the gaps in our board farther apart for easier bear-in against White's 2 potential anchors (or anchor + gap).

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