SG >> The double looks easy
SR >> Seems like a clear cube to me
You guys are much better players than me. Seems I am missing my big brass OTB bawls of steel ;)
I looked at the position again:
- I am already on the roof
- He has a 4 point board (albeit with gaps)
- Behind in the race (by 21 pips!)
- I am only about 58% favourite
- If I dance on this fairly strong board, a tonne of shots (6-5, 6-3, 5-1, 5-3, 4-3, 3-1, 4-1 plus 55, 44, 33, 11 plus any I missed) all make a sucky 5th point.
- If I dance I leave that blot on my 14 which is threatened by all direct 2's
Also the rollout confusingly says I have more winning chances if I don't double? No double 57.39% > Double/Take 56.99%
Before your advice I would never have had the insight to double this position and even after, looking at it 20-20, the thought of shipping the cube here still gives me the willies :)
                         |
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| XGID=-a-BBBC-B---aBA-ac-c-b-bbA:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 57.39% (G:17.77% B:1.05%) | 56.99% (G:19.36% B:1.14%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 42.61% (G:19.87% B:0.31%) | 43.01% (G:20.15% B:0.62%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.075 | +0.349 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.217 (-0.073) | ±0.013 (+0.204..+0.229) |
| Double/Take: | +0.290 | ±0.018 (+0.272..+0.308) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.710) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 26955205 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 31.6 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2