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Bear off win percentage math

Posted By: AP
Date: Friday, 21 April 2017, at 10:17 p.m.

In Response To: Bear off win percentage math (vsn)

I actually think your mistake was in the first line:

"On 31, 32, and 21, black will cash: 6/36 * 1 = .1666"

The XG #s you are trying to tie are cubeless...After {3/1,3/2,2/1}, Black can win right away with a dub or he can win with a no-dub/no-dub sequence: 6/36*[1/6+5/6*5/6]=.1435

.1435+.125=.2685.

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