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Recube action?

Posted By: Ian Terry
Date: Tuesday, 2 May 2017, at 12:50 a.m.

In Response To: Recube action? (John O'Hagan)

Blue escapes immediately and rates to win a gammon with 11/36 rolls = 30.5%. However, on those rolls that don't, he can deprive white of a chance to come in with 54, 42, 52, 22, and 44. 55 is a total disaster and forces another point open.

Given that, white will enter before blue hops out on that sequence 11/36*20/36 + 20/36*1/36 = 18.5%.

However, in the instances where both blue fails to escape and white fails to enter, blue's chances become considerably worse if he did not successfully achieve the close out, as his board will crunch. White doesn't really face this problem. If I remember correctly, Blue is not favorite to escape in two rolls. Given that, plus the previous estimate where White comes in first, I'd imagine that White will have enough for a take if a double is offered.

Now, as far as Blue's doubling decision goes, I figure that I could probably elicit a lot of drops with this cube, even if my guess of it being a take is correct.

OTB: Double/Take

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