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Short race evaluation? - "ROLLOUT"

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 2 May 2017, at 12:30 a.m.

In Response To: Short race evaluation? - "ROLLOUT" (Karol Szczerek)

For this length race, I find that EPC methods work better than Keith (or similar).

For Blue, I would guess about 5 pips of wastage, plus 22 real pips, for an EPC of 27.

For White, I would judge it to be slightly worse than a four-roll position, since White is a big favorite to be off in four rolls but doublets don't necessarily save a roll, so maybe an EPC of 30.

Even if my estimates are a bit off, this way I at least won't make the big mistake of estimating winning chances to be in the 20% to 22% range.

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