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Short race evaluation? - "ROLLOUT"

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 2 May 2017, at 1:05 p.m.

In Response To: Short race evaluation? - "ROLLOUT" (John O'Hagan)

I've tried hiring EPC into my game but it felt too time-absorbing at a time. There's no way around it though, I guess. Actually, I've started trying some EPC counting for this position before I've posted a rollout, but didn't conclude anything reasonable, based on Douglas Zare's GV article. He gives good ways to estimate EPCs, but his advice on general conversion to GWC is way off.

I'll certainly employ Matussek's formulas for short bearoffs - seems accurate. Thanks for the link.

If you apply real EPCs to his GWC formula, and take coefficient of 5.0% (should be a bit below 5.0% acc. to race length, but on the other hand, you should add between 0% and 0.5% because the position is between pips/roll and pips/pips type, so 5.0% seems correct), you arrive at about 72%.

0.6% difference is easily close enough.

If you take Matussek's EPCs, it gives an even count of 28.6 for both sides (John, you've missed 1 pip for White), which gives 70.5%.

Again, 0.9% is certainly close enough.

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