XG recubed me in this position. Pass makes the score 11a-7a with ~30% MWC using Neil's Numbers. If I take and auto recube to 16 before my next roll, my takepoint is then this same 30%. Auto recubing is premature of course so the true takepoint is a bit less than this.
Can I win close to 30%? I broke Blue's rolls into 5 categories: 1) 6s. 2) Board closers. 3) 55. 4) Anything else and fan. 5) Anything else and I roll a deuce. I came up with about 30% wins in these categories and took. The XG RO agrees with R/T.
Recubing does reduce Blue's gammon value but I think it's correct because the bad sequences (3 & 5 above) are pretty bad for Blue. 3 is obviously bad since Blue has to give up his 6-point but 5 is even worse: 62 & 22 enter and make a 6 prime while 52 & 42 enter and hit loose on the 2-point.
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| XGID=aB-BCBCA--Aa-----accbbbA--:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 70.62% (G:51.06% B:1.92%) | 70.98% (G:49.58% B:3.10%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.38% (G:3.20% B:0.12%) | 29.02% (G:2.53% B:0.08%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.886 | +1.075 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.920 (-0.053) | ±0.006 (+0.914..+0.926) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.973 | ±0.008 (+0.965..+0.980) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.027) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 18 minutes 31 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2