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BGonline.org Forums
football by the book
Posted By: John Little In Response To: football by the book (bob koca)
Date: Thursday, 22 May 2008, at 3:39 a.m.
If you want to talk about emotion and momentum wouldn't scoring the two pointer first give even more of a boost?
Possibly, but not enough to compensate for the lost emotional equity in the case of a miss on the first try.
If they are destined to miss the two point try regardless of when they attempt it then so what?
If they are destined to miss that pretty much renders this whole discussion moot, doesn't it?
I think the major consideration is that the chance of 2 more possessions is not too small to be considered and you would want to know sooner rather than later if it is needed.
You're talking about four changes of possession in a three minute span. Not likely. Of course it could happen, but two point conversions would be irrelevant in a three-possession game anyhow. No coach in the original position would base his strategy on anything other than a two-possession game, nor would he attempt a two point conversion after the first score.
You can definitely make a better argument for going for two in the second scenario because a failure on the first attempt isn't as devastating. I think that the success rate for kicks is around 98% and that for two-point tries is in the low to mid-40's so it seems to me that the outright wins from making 2 2's are outweighed by the outright losses from failing twice, and the tie scenario favors the one-point attempts.
For an interesting take on the subject of 4th down conversion percentages search out Gregg Easterbrook's TMQ columns on ESPN.com.
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