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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout + some discussion
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Six-prime versus six-prime! At 3a7a no less (Timothy Chow)
Date: Tuesday, 13 June 2017, at 12:05 a.m.
This problem is not as treacherous as the previous one because there aren't all that many gammons. It is a pass for money (at least according to XGR++; see below) and a D/T ATS according to the rollout.
Regarding practical considerations, a big question is whether your opponent will know to take and redouble immediately if you roll a 1. If not, then you're not risking all that much by doubling because your opponent is going to lose her market if she waits a roll, so you'll lose only 2 points.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 857 point match pip: 99
score: 4
Blue is Player 1XGID=-aBBCBBB--------A-bcbbbbaA:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 77.62% (G:10.35% B:0.62%) 77.32% (G:11.49% B:0.96%) Opponent Winning Chances: 22.38% (G:2.48% B:0.08%) 22.68% (G:2.74% B:0.21%) Cubeless Equities +0.639 +1.187 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.639 (-0.108) ±0.007 (+0.632..+0.645) Double/Take: +0.747 ±0.014 (+0.733..+0.760) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.253) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 15 minutes 54 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Money:
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 85Unlimited Game pip: 99
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-aBBCBBB--------A-bcbbbbaA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 78.42% (G:8.36% B:0.34%) 77.90% (G:10.95% B:0.46%) Opponent Winning Chances: 21.58% (G:2.11% B:0.06%) 22.10% (G:2.53% B:0.06%) Cubeless Equities +0.634 +1.293 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.670 (-0.330) Double/Take: +1.095 (+0.095) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
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