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Rollout + some discussion

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 13 June 2017, at 12:05 a.m.

In Response To: Six-prime versus six-prime! At 3a7a no less (Timothy Chow)

This problem is not as treacherous as the previous one because there aren't all that many gammons. It is a pass for money (at least according to XGR++; see below) and a D/T ATS according to the rollout.

Regarding practical considerations, a big question is whether your opponent will know to take and redouble immediately if you roll a 1. If not, then you're not risking all that much by doubling because your opponent is going to lose her market if she waits a roll, so you'll lose only 2 points.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 85
7 point match
pip: 99
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBCBBB--------A-bcbbbbaA:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.62% (G:10.35% B:0.62%) 77.32% (G:11.49% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.38% (G:2.48% B:0.08%) 22.68% (G:2.74% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.639 +1.187
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.639 (-0.108)±0.007 (+0.632..+0.645)
Double/Take:+0.747±0.014 (+0.733..+0.760)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.253)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 54 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


Money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 85
Unlimited Game
pip: 99
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBCBBB--------A-bcbbbbaA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.42% (G:8.36% B:0.34%) 77.90% (G:10.95% B:0.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.58% (G:2.11% B:0.06%) 22.10% (G:2.53% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.634 +1.293
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.670 (-0.330)
Double/Take:+1.095 (+0.095)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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