BGonline.org Forums

High backgame - hit or not? #2 (spoiler)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 7 July 2017, at 10:53 p.m.

In Response To: High backgame - hit or not? #2 (Karol Szczerek)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 121 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 167 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----ACC-AbA--Ba--cbebBB---:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
(2nd through 14th best plays are omitted from evaluation)

1.	XG Roller++	10/4 8/7	eq: -0.622
	Player: Opponent: 34.54% (G:5.48% B:0.16%) 65.46% (G:15.16% B:0.39%)
2.	XG Roller++	21/14*	eq: -0.808 (-0.187)
	Player: Opponent: 36.22% (G:7.38% B:0.30%) 63.78% (G:30.79% B:2.22%)

Sorry to include this evaluation of non-hit versus hit prior to your posting a rollout, but my post would make less sense without it, and your post exchange with Neil seems like a semi-spoiler already.

Do you see the "timing" factor as deciding, too?
Or is it the gammon losses that clouds everything else?

I believe it's mostly the latter.

The biggest problem is that one of Blue's blots is inside his board (unlike in your previous 54 position). That blows it out of the water, and it's hard to see how any amount of timing adjustment (alone) can overcome.

However, even if you shore up Blue's side of the board with 4/8, hitting is at best tied (see rollout below).

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 121 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 171 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----CC-BbA--Ba--cbebBB---:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Compared to original, Blue is adjusted by 4/8

1.	Rollout1	10/4 5/4	eq: -0.542
	Player: Opponent: 37.37% (G:6.21% B:0.23%) 62.63% (G:15.88% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.550...-0.535) - [87.1%] Duration: 17 minutes 05 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/14*	eq: -0.549 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 37.82% (G:8.74% B:0.39%) 62.18% (G:21.66% B:1.07%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.557...-0.540) - [12.9%] Duration: 17 minutes 53 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

If you could further alter the position so that White's 5s are no longer diversified (as Neil noted), I'm sure Blue's 21/14* would pull ahead. [For example, you can adjust Blue 13/12(2) and White 11/12 and make the roll 62. Then 21/14* is right by .086 (by 1k rollout). However, this change is not isolated enough; aspects of contact inflate the swing.]

Now let's make a second change, in order to demonstrate the timing affect I believe you were hoping to spotlight:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 131 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 171 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----CC-BcA--Ba--cbdbBB---:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Compared to the second position, White is adjusted by 6/16

1.	Rollout1	21/14*	eq: -0.639
	Player: Opponent: 35.45% (G:8.17% B:0.33%) 64.55% (G:21.32% B:1.08%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.653...-0.625) - [100.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 45 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/4 5/4	eq: -0.686 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 32.67% (G:5.22% B:0.17%) 67.33% (G:13.96% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.696...-0.675) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 55 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

One of White's 6pt spares has been backed up to her 16pt. Now Blue's timing is shaky, so he hits.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• High backgame - hit or not? #2
  Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 7 July 2017, at 5:20 p.m.
  • High backgame - hit or not? #2
    neilkaz -- Friday, 7 July 2017, at 6:20 p.m.
    • High backgame - hit or not? #2
      Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 7 July 2017, at 8:09 p.m.
      • High backgame - hit or not? #2
        neilkaz -- Friday, 7 July 2017, at 10:27 p.m.
      • High backgame - hit or not? #2 (spoiler)
        Nack Ballard -- Friday, 7 July 2017, at 10:53 p.m.
  • High backgame - hit or not? #2 - ROLLOUT
    Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 8 July 2017, at 5:51 a.m.
  • High backgame - hit or not? #2
    scotty -- Saturday, 8 July 2017, at 5:52 p.m.