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BGonline.org Forums
Your Thoughts Please
Posted By: mamabear In Response To: Your Thoughts Please (Chris Bray)
Date: Wednesday, 16 August 2017, at 10:56 a.m.
These look quite different, even though the memo from XG seems to be the same about putting cube efficiency first.
First problem: After 10/3, the situation repeats one-fourth of the time, and you get to double him out. If he gets partway out with 51 or 42, you still have a good double. The rest of the time, unless he rolls something huge, you're still the favorite and can continue to creep up on an efficient cube. He might get there first, yeah, but in most cases he's beginning the race farther back from the starting line than you. But after the hit, you instead put him in that position too much of the time. Any 4, and you better roll a 6 or get doubled out. Even if you enter but can't hit back, he will be the favorite and the one sneaking up on a cube, with you the one starting at a distance.
Second problem: After the first play, all the opponent has to do is not roll a five and you're doubling him out. That's a lot of rolls, so I think it swamps all other considerations, but here's some more anyway: If he does roll a 5, you aren't out of the game unless it's a 55, though you aren't in the good shape you were in with Problem 1 when he ran with average rolls. If instead you hit on this turn, you aren't toast if you fan the way you were in the first problem, and it's a race to see if he can roll a 5 before you either roll a 6 or he breaks badly enough that you can double from the bar. He has a slight edge simply because he gets to try first.
Nice problems illustrating this concept! If these came from your website and I didn't see them, sorry I haven't been around. For anyone here who never visits Chris Bray's website, do check it out some time.
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