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OTB and RO -- CUSP VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 28 October 2017, at 2:43 p.m.

In Response To: OTB and RO (neilkaz)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
3 point match
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BcD-BB-Bd-----Aga---AA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

Original position (Big No Double)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.712% (G:17.046% B:1.178%) 63.831% (G:17.307% B:1.416%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.288% (G:8.097% B:0.433%) 36.169% (G:8.059% B:0.551%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4290 +0.9291
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6570±0.0076 (+0.6495..+0.6646)
Double/Take:+0.5911 (-0.0660)±0.0091 (+0.5819..+0.6002)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3430)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.9%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8947583
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 37 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil's rollout of his original position appears above. It's a big No Double.

In Variant 1 below, one of White's 13pt checkers is back on her 20pt stack. Blue has improved to a borderline No Double.






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
3 point match
pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BdD-B-BBc-----Aga---AA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

Variant 1 (Borderline No Double)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.36% (G:19.34% B:1.45%) 66.07% (G:19.57% B:1.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.64% (G:6.79% B:0.41%) 33.93% (G:6.87% B:0.60%)
Cubeless Equities +0.544 +1.129
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.801±0.010 (+0.791..+0.811)
Double/Take:+0.798 (-0.003)±0.013 (+0.786..+0.811)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.199)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.4%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:63.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


In Variant 2 below, another of White's checkers has been taken back from her 13pt, this time to her 24pt. Even with both of these big changes against her (13/20 and 13/24), White has a (borderline) take.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 177
3 point match
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BdD-BB-Bb-----Aga---AA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

Variant 1 (Borderline Take)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.28% (G:26.28% B:2.60%) 66.55% (G:27.51% B:4.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.72% (G:6.36% B:0.42%) 33.45% (G:6.63% B:0.57%)
Cubeless Equities +0.703 +1.358
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.902 (-0.094)±0.009 (+0.893..+0.911)
Double/Take:+0.996±0.014 (+0.982..+1.010)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.004)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13417452
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:70.7%
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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