I was White in this position in a last chance match against Takayuki Hino. He doubled and I passed after thinking about it for a while. About all his numbers play at least reasonably well except for the blotting 65 and 51 which strips the 6 and overstacks the 5. White's hitting chances won't disappear if Blue rolls a point making number this turn of course since Blue will still have lots of points to clear and could easily be forced to blot somewhere down the line. Plus White figures to win the race ~10% of the time. The 5K RO shows the t/p decision to be TCTC.
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| XGID=-a---DCbD-D-b-----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.99% (G:11.33% B:0.15%) | 75.11% (G:15.84% B:0.31%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.01% (G:2.44% B:0.06%) | 24.89% (G:2.45% B:0.15%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.709 | +1.580 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.907 (-0.093) | ±0.004 (+0.903..+0.912) |
| Double/Take: | +1.003 (+0.003) | ±0.009 (+0.994..+1.012) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 71.4% | |
| Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2