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OTB & RO, and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 11:10 p.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 136
5 point match
pip: 110
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---DCbD-D-b-----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:5:10

Original position, Borderline Pass


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.99% (G:11.33% B:0.15%) 75.11% (G:15.84% B:0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.01% (G:2.44% B:0.06%) 24.89% (G:2.45% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.709 +1.580
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.907 (-0.093)±0.004 (+0.903..+0.912)
Double/Take:+1.003 (+0.003)±0.009 (+0.994..+1.012)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:71.4%
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

John's rollout of his original position is shown above. It is a borderline pass (TCTC, as he indicated).

The first three variants below each make a slight adjustment to Blue's position and are shown in order of decreasing strength for Blue:






White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 136
5 point match
pip: 110
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---DCbCBC-b-----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:5:10

Variant 1, Small Take
(Blue is adjusted 10/9 8/9, same pipcount)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.94% (G:12.15% B:0.25%) 74.74% (G:16.07% B:0.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.06% (G:2.51% B:0.11%) 25.26% (G:2.75% B:0.20%)
Cubeless Equities +0.722 +1.553
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.891 (-0.082)±0.005 (+0.886..+0.896)
Double/Take:+0.974±0.009 (+0.965..+0.983)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.026)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47805405
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 38 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 136
5 point match
pip: 112
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---DCbD-BBb-----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:5:10

Variant 2, Borderline Double
(Blue is adjusted 10/11(2))


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.19% (G:12.03% B:0.23%) 73.59% (G:15.00% B:0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.81% (G:2.79% B:0.10%) 26.41% (G:2.70% B:0.20%)
Cubeless Equities +0.681 +1.492
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.874 (-0.008)±0.005 (+0.869..+0.880)
Double/Take:+0.882±0.009 (+0.873..+0.891)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.118)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16319810
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:92.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 31 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 136
5 point match
pip: 112
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BEbD-D-b-----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:5:10

Variant 3, Borderline No Double
(Blue's two 5pt spares back on 6pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.79% (G:11.51% B:0.23%) 73.16% (G:14.95% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.21% (G:2.86% B:0.11%) 26.84% (G:2.89% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities +0.661 +1.463
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.851±0.005 (+0.845..+0.856)
Double/Take:+0.847 (-0.004)±0.009 (+0.838..+0.855)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.149)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71475118
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:78.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26 minutes 59 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

The last three variants, below, each make a single-checker adjustment to White's position and (again) are shown in order of decreasing strength for Blue.

As usual, each variant is meant to be compared to the original position (at the top of the post), but comparing variants to each other can often be instructive as well. Here, you might find it of special interest to compare Variant 4 to Variant 5.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 146
5 point match
pip: 110
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--DCbD-D-a-----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:5:10

Variant 4, Small Double
(White is adjusted 13/23)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.66% (G:18.69% B:1.01%) 74.25% (G:27.96% B:2.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.34% (G:2.77% B:0.07%) 25.75% (G:2.76% B:0.20%)
Cubeless Equities +0.844 +1.526
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.908 (-0.026)±0.006 (+0.902..+0.914)
Double/Take:+0.934±0.010 (+0.924..+0.944)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.066)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16319810
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 21 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 144
5 point match
pip: 110
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aDCbD-D-a-----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:5:10

Variant 5, Borderline Double
(White is adjusted 13/21)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.88% (G:19.46% B:1.13%) 74.53% (G:26.63% B:2.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.12% (G:2.49% B:0.10%) 25.47% (G:2.51% B:0.23%)
Cubeless Equities +0.867 +1.547
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.954 (-0.002)±0.006 (+0.948..+0.960)
Double/Take:+0.956±0.010 (+0.946..+0.967)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.044)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16319810
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:63.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 52 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 142
5 point match
pip: 110
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---DCaD-D-b-----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:5:10

Variant 6, Marginal No Double
(White is adjusted 18/24)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.38% (G:15.38% B:1.30%) 73.20% (G:20.03% B:3.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.62% (G:2.65% B:0.10%) 26.80% (G:2.37% B:0.24%)
Cubeless Equities +0.753 +1.479
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.868±0.005 (+0.863..+0.872)
Double/Take:+0.850 (-0.017)±0.010 (+0.841..+0.860)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.132)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.3%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47805405
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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