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Standard Checker Play - Rollout and VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 2 December 2017, at 3:05 a.m.

In Response To: Standard Checker Play - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bAB--E-C----Ba--bce--b-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10

Original position .....61P-55P-62D-652-55P-32


1.Rollout18/5 6/4eq: -0.614
Player:
Opponent:		37.68% (G:10.48% B:0.50%)
62.32% (G:27.83% B:3.99%)		Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.635...-0.592) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: -0.669 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		35.02% (G:9.79% B:0.48%)
64.98% (G:24.70% B:2.64%)		Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.688...-0.651) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 33 seconds
3.Rollout18/3eq: -0.690 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:		33.67% (G:9.45% B:0.52%)
66.33% (G:22.71% B:1.78%)		Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.708...-0.671) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
4.XG Roller++13/11 6/3eq: -0.742 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:		32.99% (G:9.28% B:0.47%)
67.01% (G:22.58% B:2.05%)
5.XG Roller++13/11 13/10eq: -0.750 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:		33.07% (G:8.76% B:0.44%)
66.93% (G:22.73% B:2.14%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24359813
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Above is Stick's rollout of his discovery. (Great position!)

In the variant below, White has her 4pt instead of her 5pt.
Quite a difference: Now the choice is TCTC.






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bAB--E-C----Ba--bce-b--B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10

Variant .....54D-54D-54P-65P-61P-652-62D-32


1.Rollout18/5 6/4eq: -0.927
Player:
Opponent:		32.82% (G:8.78% B:0.47%)
67.18% (G:29.74% B:4.26%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.930...-0.923) - [73.5%]
Duration: 4 hours 42 minutes
2.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: -0.928 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		31.16% (G:8.34% B:0.44%)
68.84% (G:26.34% B:2.98%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.931...-0.925) - [26.5%]
Duration: 4 hours 21 minutes
1 54432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16319810
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


In the 4pt variant, Blue has a clear take (by .07), as shown below, though it's a monster double (by .18).

[Note: Blue's two candidate plays implied above are & (double-slot, 8/5 6/4) and I (Inside, 6/3 6/2). All other plays are so much weaker that Blue would have to pass.]

By contrast, if White owns her lowly 3pt as in the original position above (according to Ken's normal-score rollout, not shown here), White has only a small double (by .03).

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 131
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bABAAD-B----Ba--bce-b--B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Variant .....54D-54D-54P-65P-61P-652-62D-32&-C


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.06% (G:29.23% B:3.80%) 67.18% (G:29.81% B:4.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.94% (G:8.74% B:0.45%) 32.82% (G:8.78% B:0.46%)
Cubeless Equities +0.580 +1.184
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.744 (-0.184)±0.007 (+0.737..+0.751)
Double/Take:+0.928±0.011 (+0.917..+0.939)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.072)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16319810
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 46 seconds

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