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3-2 to play: Rollout and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 11 December 2017, at 2:24 p.m.

In Response To: 3-2 to play: Rollout (Barry Murphy)

		White is Professional score: 4 pip: 125 5 point match Crawford pip: 140 score: 0 Blue is bhm_w10
XGID=a---BBBBB---bB---dCdbb----:0:0:1:32:0:4:1:5:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	18/15 13/11	eq: +0.503
	Player: Opponent: 74.22% (G:13.71% B:0.68%) 25.78% (G:8.45% B:0.90%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.498...+0.508) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/11 13/10	eq: +0.470 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 72.66% (G:13.81% B:0.53%) 27.34% (G:8.55% B:0.69%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.465...+0.475) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
3.	3-ply	18/16 13/10	eq: +0.400 (-0.103)
	Player: Opponent: 69.24% (G:12.51% B:0.45%) 30.76% (G:8.55% B:0.32%)
4.	3-ply	18/13	eq: +0.377 (-0.126)
	Player: Opponent: 68.23% (G:11.62% B:0.29%) 31.77% (G:6.34% B:0.14%)
5.	3-ply	13/8	eq: +0.361 (-0.142)
	Player: Opponent: 67.39% (G:11.86% B:0.34%) 32.61% (G:7.29% B:0.17%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 49048809 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Barry's rollout of his original position is shown above.

Two variants are shown below. The first yields a reduction in margin, the second a contrast.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 130 5 point match Crawford pip: 140 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---BBBBB---cB---cCdbb----:0:0:1:32:1:4:1:5:10
Variant 1 (One White spare is moved from 8pt to 13pt)

1.	Rollout1	18/15 13/11	eq: +0.602
	Player: Opponent: 72.12% (G:15.58% B:0.56%) 27.88% (G:9.58% B:0.90%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.599...+0.606) - [100.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 32 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/11 13/10	eq: +0.588 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 71.26% (G:15.80% B:0.55%) 28.74% (G:8.44% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.585...+0.591) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 05 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 86174152 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 135 5 point match Crawford pip: 140 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---BBBBB---dB---bCdbb----:0:0:1:32:1:4:1:5:10
Variant 2 (Another White spare is moved from 8pt to 13pt)

1.	Rollout1	13/11 13/10	eq: +0.626
	Player: Opponent: 71.20% (G:19.69% B:0.70%) 28.80% (G:7.60% B:0.80%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.624...+0.629) - [100.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/15 13/11	eq: +0.615 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 71.31% (G:18.35% B:0.75%) 28.69% (G:9.46% B:1.16%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.612...+0.618) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 12 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 86174152 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• 3-2 to play
  Barry Murphy -- Friday, 8 December 2017, at 10:02 p.m.
  • 3-2 to play
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 8 December 2017, at 10:42 p.m.
    • 3-2 to play
      neilkaz -- Friday, 8 December 2017, at 11:05 p.m.
  • 3-2 to play: Rollout
    Barry Murphy -- Sunday, 10 December 2017, at 2:21 p.m.
    • 3-2 to play: Rollout and VARIANTS
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 11 December 2017, at 2:24 p.m.
  • 3-2 to play
    ah_clem -- Monday, 11 December 2017, at 4:05 p.m.