I've seen this problem come up many times over the years and I've never really stopped to analyze it because making the two point is basically always correct. Here we have a kind of rare scenario though. In the variant below all I did was move the opp's check back 5 pips and it's enough to make the 'standard' play right again.
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 111 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 110
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a--BBBC-B---bD---abcb-bb--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 33 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7(2) | eq: +0.920 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 90.20% (G:15.52% B:0.21%)
9.80% (G:0.88% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.915...+0.925) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/2(2) | eq: +0.881 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.65% (G:20.16% B:0.17%)
13.35% (G:1.18% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.877...+0.886) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.5 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15351378
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 116 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 110
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a--BBBC-B---cD----bcb-bb--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 33 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/2(2) | eq: +0.962 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.46% (G:26.63% B:0.13%)
12.54% (G:1.41% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.957...+0.966) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7(2) | eq: +0.944 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 89.52% (G:19.64% B:0.21%)
10.48% (G:1.03% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.939...+0.949) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15351378
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10