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7 Away - 3 Away cube - ROLLOUTS -VARIANTS

Posted By: Steven E. Carey
Date: Friday, 16 February 2018, at 1:00 a.m.

In Response To: 7 Away - 3 Away cube (Steven E. Carey)





White is skrat

score: 8
pip: 175
11 point match
pip: 171
score: 4

Blue is PRO_GoldenPoint
XGID=--dBB-C----AaBb--bbbCBb---:0:0:1:00:4:8:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.29% (G:26.79% B:1.81%) 63.48% (G:27.17% B:1.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.71% (G:8.45% B:0.65%) 36.52% (G:8.45% B:1.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.453 +1.089
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.860 (-0.140)±0.005 (+0.856..+0.865)
xg Double/Take:+1.036 (+0.036)±0.008 (+1.029..+1.044)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58918962
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 29 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This was a score based double. His high winning percentage makes this much too early for money or early in the match. I had a sudden flash of insight as Karol describes: between the shot, his forces cut in half, being able to forward or backward and esp. his lack of cube vig, I felt certain this was the time to strike. After considerable thought, he passed. But let's look making him 4 Away to make his gammons perfect.





White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 175
11 point match
pip: 171
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--dBB-C----AaBb--bbbCBb---:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.16% (G:27.21% B:1.88%) 63.38% (G:27.64% B:2.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.84% (G:8.63% B:0.60%) 36.62% (G:8.60% B:1.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.464 +1.017
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.772 (-0.120)±0.012 (+0.760..+0.784)
xg Double/Take:+0.891±0.016 (+0.876..+0.907)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.109)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58918962
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Now it's an easy double/take. But what if I make my score 8 Away?





White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 175
11 point match
pip: 171
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--dBB-C----AaBb--bbbCBb---:0:0:1:00:3:7:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.24% (G:26.91% B:1.97%) 63.21% (G:27.24% B:2.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.76% (G:8.38% B:0.60%) 36.79% (G:8.34% B:0.83%)
Cubeless Equities +0.458 +1.059
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.821 (-0.149)±0.011 (+0.810..+0.832)
xg Double/Take:+0.970±0.015 (+0.955..+0.986)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.030)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58918962
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Now with perfect efficiency with my redouble to 8, it's now a narrow take. Just to round things out, let's look at 4 Away 4 Away.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 175
4 point match
pip: 171
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--dBB-C----AaBb--bbbCBb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.25% (G:27.24% B:4.63%) 63.18% (G:27.59% B:9.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.75% (G:8.66% B:0.46%) 36.82% (G:9.04% B:0.85%)
Cubeless Equities +0.602 +1.482
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.807 (-0.159)±0.015 (+0.792..+0.822)
xg Double/Take:+0.966±0.023 (+0.943..+0.989)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.034)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58918962
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.8%
Duration: 17 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

An easy double and a narrow take because of the lopsided gammons.

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