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How about them Celts?

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Monday, 9 June 2008, at 5:33 p.m.

In Response To: How about them Celts? (Daniel Murphy)

(2) So what's the difference between a basketball score-by-possession summary and a random distribution of heads and tails from a fair coin tossed?

The number of "alternations" from one side scoring to the other side scoring in your example is 64 out of 95 (if I counted right). With coin flips, you'd expect closer to 47 or 48. The probability of getting 64 alternating coin flips is only about 1/325 the chance of getting say 47 alternations.

(3) Does winning 10 matches in a row deserve recognition as some kind of accomplishment?

Suppose Albert is 100 Elo points higher than his average competition and Bill is 100 points lower than his average competition. Assume the matches are 11 points. Albert has a 59.4% chance of winning one match and a .5468% chance of winning 10 straight matches. Bill has a 40.6% chance of winning one match and .0122% chance of winning 10 straight matches.

You obviously have to be lucky to win 10 matches in a row, but Bill's going to need a lot more luck than Albert. Bill will have to play 45 times as many matches to have the same chance of winning 10 in a row.

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