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BGonline.org Forums
Number of market losers guidelines
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Number of market losers guidelines (Bob Koca)
Date: Saturday, 24 March 2018, at 6:18 p.m.
"Can you quantify the excellence of this guide and say more about the assumptions built into it?"
It generally gives you the right cube action in most early to mid game positions whenever the trailer's g's are slightly better than the opening position and the leader's are slightly less.
"In this position the guideline fails badly saying nowhere close to a double with the size of the market losers being huge and the gammon losses not being accounted for seeming to be the culprits."
The size of market loss isn't the culprit here...it's the leader's large g chance. Without this large g chance against you, having only 1 market loser is a big no double for the trailer. When the trailer should double ats when a large chunk of the leader's wins are g's is obviously difficult. I don't have any formula for that. You know you can double even earlier under these conditions so just do your best to try and figure out whether or not cubing increases your MWC.
"For example huge market losers should of course be more important than small market losers but that is not explicitly accounted for. Are they considered some "typically sized" market losers somehow? You say that the gammons you lose are important at this 4a -2a score but is the 3-4 rule for a case with no gammon losses or some typical amount of gammon losses?"
The 3-4/within 8% rule is for typical gammon chances and the market losers are considered typically sized ones. And yes large market losers are more important than small ones.
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