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From Vegas - how would you decide on Cube here?

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 19 April 2018, at 6:13 p.m.

In Response To: From Vegas - how would you decide on Cube here? (Grant Hoffman)

Here's how I'd go about it. This is pip count oriented race but clearly White should be penalized somewhat. I'd have penalized White (EPC compared to Blue) about 1.5 to 2 pips which is actually too much (actual is about 1 pip).

So this would mean that effectively White trails by almost 10%. Trailing by 10% in a pure pip count race means that you have about 25% winning chances.

Here the TP is 26.2% and I would've judged this was a tiny pass.

OMG I felt that a 0.97 take was a 1.01 pass! This is certainly no tragedy, especially considering that I probably want to pass this vs. many weaker players, esp. those who don't double quickly at -2-2 and those who's checker play at DMP is clearly worse than mine.

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