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From Vegas - how would you decide on Cube here?

Posted By: Hans Marius Eikseth
Date: Friday, 27 April 2018, at 8:11 a.m.

In Response To: From Vegas - how would you decide on Cube here? (Grant Hoffman)

Since no one mentioned it yet, IŽd point out the iSight method (now built into the windows version of Gnu, at least) developed in 2014 by Axel Reichert.

Here, it gives the following adjusted counts to leader (L) and trailer (T): L=69 pips, no punishments=69 T=74 pips, +two crossover punish-pips + two less men borne off =78

gwc=[80-L/3+2*(L-T)]=57+18=75% game winning chances.

This suggests a D/T. However, the gwc estimate here is off by nearly 2%. This means one over the board would need to have available adequate adjustments if a problematic position is recognised. IŽd venture to suggest the stacked 5- and 6-point creating a structural weakness with only 2 checkers on the 4-point. Awarding a punishing pip to L for the 4-point Achilles heel would yield a 73% estimated gwc.

Problem is of course that this in this case is done in hindsight - however,a repertoire of bootstrap adjustments seem called for. A testable codification out-of-sample would then be needed to improve reliability and validity.

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