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why is this a take

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Monday, 30 April 2018, at 8:46 a.m.

In Response To: why is this a take (John O'Hagan)

In addition to John's excellent explanation, let me add that you should not be overly scared of getting the 2nd checker picked up. He will run with all 6's and only 2 of those hit. On the next two rolls, out of 1296, you get hit 396 times, he runs 324 times, and he can't hot or run and you enter 320 times. In the exchange of rolls You are a 644/1296 to 396/1296 favorite to not be hit before you enter. And, the odds get better for you going forward, because if he does not hit and you do not come in he will have run 25% of the time. Even if he hits, you have a solid anchor and he has the nasty 10 point to clear.

Often, you have to look and see how his numbers play. Knowing that he should run with a 6 and knowing that you are almost as likely to enter while he is still trapped in your board as he is to hit you, makes this take seem easy.

Messages In This Thread

• why is this a take
  DanielP -- Sunday, 29 April 2018, at 12:16 p.m.
  • why is this a take
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 29 April 2018, at 1:06 p.m.
    • why is this a take
      garyo -- Sunday, 29 April 2018, at 4:11 p.m.
  • why is this a take
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 29 April 2018, at 5:27 p.m.
    • why is this a take
      Joe Russell -- Monday, 30 April 2018, at 8:46 a.m.