I felt for sure that making the 5 point would rise to the top at some match score. Let's look at some of the options. Money play is at least close.
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 156 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is eXtremeGammon |
|
| XGID=-a-a--E-CA--dD---bbcb--AA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/9 | eq: -0.4840 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.83% (G:9.47% B:0.40%)
61.17% (G:19.02% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ±0.0045 (-0.4885...-0.4795) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/5 8/5 | eq: -0.5036 (-0.0196) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.54% (G:10.20% B:0.36%)
62.46% (G:18.17% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ±0.0044 (-0.5080...-0.4992) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 3. | 2-ply | 13/9 6/3* | eq: -0.5918 (-0.1078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.33% (G:8.25% B:0.30%)
64.67% (G:20.05% B:1.20%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | 13/10 13/9 | eq: -0.7235 (-0.2395) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.98% (G:7.45% B:0.25%)
67.02% (G:20.36% B:1.09%) | |
|
| 5. | 1-ply | 13/9 8/5 | eq: -0.7952 (-0.3112) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.89% (G:7.07% B:0.27%)
67.11% (G:22.99% B:1.48%) | |
|
| |
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58918962
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Certainly 7 away / 2 away would make it correct, but it comes out slightly worse.
| | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 156 | | 7 point match | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is eXtremeGammon |
|
| XGID=-a-a--E-CA--dD---bbcb--AA-:0:0:1:43:0:5:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/9 | eq: -0.2944 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.93% (G:9.39% B:0.34%)
61.07% (G:19.42% B:2.11%) | Conf.: ±0.0031 (-0.2975...-0.2912) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/5 8/5 | eq: -0.3179 (-0.0235) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.66% (G:10.02% B:0.30%)
62.34% (G:18.53% B:2.01%) | Conf.: ±0.0030 (-0.3209...-0.3149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 13/9 6/3* | eq: -0.3699 (-0.0755) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.57% (G:8.23% B:0.35%)
64.43% (G:20.18% B:1.18%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | 13/10 13/9 | eq: -0.4520 (-0.1576) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.22% (G:7.51% B:0.27%)
66.78% (G:20.79% B:1.11%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 24/21 9/5 | eq: -0.4737 (-0.1794) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.49% (G:7.14% B:0.26%)
66.51% (G:24.91% B:1.40%) | |
|
| |
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58918962
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
What about 4 away / 2 away? The 5 point is closer, but not the best.
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 156 | | 4 point match | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is eXtremeGammon |
|
| XGID=-a-a--E-CA--dD---bbcb--AA-:0:0:1:43:0:2:0:4:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/9 | eq: -0.2000 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.93% (G:9.39% B:0.71%)
61.07% (G:19.56% B:2.15%) | Conf.: ±0.0028 (-0.2028...-0.1972) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/5 8/5 | eq: -0.2161 (-0.0161) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.70% (G:9.88% B:0.62%)
62.30% (G:18.79% B:1.95%) | Conf.: ±0.0027 (-0.2188...-0.2134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 13/9 6/3* | eq: -0.3521 (-0.1521) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.69% (G:8.27% B:0.36%)
64.31% (G:20.37% B:1.19%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | 13/10 13/9 | eq: -0.4437 (-0.2437) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.22% (G:7.51% B:0.27%)
66.78% (G:20.79% B:1.11%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 24/21 9/5 | eq: -0.4629 (-0.2629) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.49% (G:7.14% B:0.26%)
66.51% (G:24.91% B:1.40%) | |
|
| |
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58918962
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
So what about Gammon Go? Even at this score making the 5 point is second best.
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 156 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is eXtremeGammon |
|
| XGID=-a-a--E-CA--dD---bbcb--AA-:0:0:1:43:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/9 | eq: -0.0324 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.38% (G:9.00% B:0.86%)
60.62% (G:20.18% B:2.62%) | Conf.: ±0.0030 (-0.0354...-0.0294) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/5 8/5 | eq: -0.0469 (-0.0145) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.82% (G:9.83% B:0.69%)
62.18% (G:19.01% B:2.45%) | Conf.: ±0.0030 (-0.0499...-0.0439) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 13/9 6/3* | eq: -0.1276 (-0.0953) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.36% (G:8.26% B:0.33%)
64.64% (G:19.89% B:1.25%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | 13/10 13/9 | eq: -0.1822 (-0.1499) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.24% (G:7.65% B:0.29%)
66.76% (G:21.00% B:1.25%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 24/21 9/5 | eq: -0.2151 (-0.1827) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.77% (G:6.47% B:0.20%)
67.23% (G:21.08% B:1.11%) | |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58918962
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
I'm surprised by these results. I thought for sure the 5 point would be the best play at some match score.