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Make the closeout or play to pick up a second checker @ DMP

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 8:14 p.m.

In Response To: Make the closeout or play to pick up a second checker @ DMP (ah_clem)

One guy closed out with 9 off and other checkers nicely stacked on low points would give White 59% and Blue 41%.

White having an ace pt gap would give Blue about 5% more for a total of 46%. We look at a 2-pt-wide gap here, so I'd put Blue slightly over 50% if he completes the closeout.

This is DMP and the risk in waiting is very small. We can recirculate, we can sometimes make the bar for a 6-prime and even if we are hit and she escapes, we will still usually retain good chances.

Important factor is that White's structure is pretty awkward and shot prone, so the chances of actually picking up the 2nd guy look quite promising.

I'd certainly wait here with 20/14.

I think I'd need about 60% win at closeout to reject trying getting the 2nd guy here.

Messages In This Thread

• Make the closeout or play to pick up a second checker @ DMP
  ah_clem -- Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 4:09 p.m.
  • Make the closeout or play to pick up a second checker @ DMP
    Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 8:14 p.m.
  • Make the closeout or play to pick up a second checker @ DMP
    TarHeelFan -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 2:02 p.m.
  • Make the closeout or play to pick up a second checker @ DMP
    neilkaz -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 6:35 p.m.
  • Make the closeout or play to pick up a second checker RO & variant@ DMP
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 29 July 2018, at 12:56 p.m.