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Why do I not want a 3rd man back?

Posted By: bob koca
Date: Monday, 16 June 2008, at 4:37 p.m.

In Response To: Why do I not want a 3rd man back? (tem_sat)

Suppose you have a play that both loses more games but wins more gammons. In money play you need to get 2 extra gammons per every extra loss to break even. Compared to just winning a single game for +1, the gammon gives you +2 (a gain of 1 compared to winning a single) whereas losing the game gives you -1 (a loss of 2 compared to winning a single).

At the 3 away 2 away score with opponent owning a 2 cube winning a single game puts you at about 68% match winning chance. Winning a gammon instead puts you at 100% (a gain of 32%). Losing the game instead puts you at 0% (loss of 68%). So you need to gain at least 68 extra gammons per 32 extra losses for the aggressive gammonish play to be correct. 68 is just slightly more than twice 32 so gammonish plays are just slightly less attractive than for money.

Bob Koca

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