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Double from bar with two up -- Contrasting Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 28 July 2018, at 9:42 p.m.

In Response To: Double from the bar with two up. - RO & VAR (Karol Szczerek)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b-BBBBB---cB----ccA-b-bB:0:0:1:D:0:0:0:0:10
Original position Blue has a solid five-prime

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76,45% (G:21,57% B:0,92%)	76,65% (G:22,33% B:1,06%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23,55% (G:9,08% B:0,22%)	23,35% (G:8,98% B:0,19%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,661	+1,350
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,910 (-0,090)	±0,011 (+0,898..+0,921)
Double/Take:	+1,187 (+0,187)	±0,018 (+1,170..+1,205)
Double/Pass:	+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 12 minutes 49 seconds

Above is Karol's rollout of his original position. White should pass.

Below is a variant. It skips all the way over the take window into no-initial-double territory.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 154 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bB-BBBB---cB----ccA-b-bB:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original position Blue owns his 3pt instead of his 4pt

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.52% (G:18.46% B:0.87%)	66.75% (G:19.27% B:0.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.48% (G:13.64% B:0.34%)	33.25% (G:13.67% B:0.33%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.384	+0.794
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.615	±0.008 (+0.607..+0.622)
Double/Take:	+0.582 (-0.032)	±0.011 (+0.572..+0.593)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.385)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.2%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 29593913 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 19 minutes 28 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• Double from the bar with two up.
  Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 7:20 p.m.
  • Double from the bar with two up.
    Grant Hoffman -- Thursday, 19 July 2018, at 9:26 p.m.
  • Double from the bar with two up.
    Benf -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 1:34 p.m.
    • Double from the bar with two up.
      Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 8:45 p.m.
      • Double from the bar with two up.
        BenF -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 10:20 p.m.
  • Double from the bar with two up.
    neilkaz -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 2:17 p.m.
  • Double from the bar with two up.
    TarHeelFan -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 6:25 p.m.
  • Double from the bar with two up. - RO & VAR
    Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 20 July 2018, at 9:32 p.m.
    • Double from bar with two up -- Contrasting Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 28 July 2018, at 9:42 p.m.