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2 Away - 5 Away // Take or Pass RO

Posted By: Steven E. Carey
Date: Monday, 6 August 2018, at 8:51 p.m.

In Response To: 2 Away - 5 Away // Take or Pass (Steven E. Carey)

I got the gammon risk right, but underestimated my wins and passed. I also didn't grasp the difference between this score and 4 Away - 2 Away.

		White is ADG_Pepeu score: 6 pip: 132 11 point match pip: 144 score: 9 Blue is PRO_GoldenPoint
XGID=-b---CBCC---cB---aabbAb-bA:0:0:-1:00:9:6:0:11:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	53.45% (G:33.14% B:0.39%)	53.67% (G:33.35% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	46.55% (G:12.61% B:1.51%)	46.33% (G:11.64% B:1.65%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.108	+0.734
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.512 (-0.222)	±0.006 (+0.505..+0.518)
Double/Take:	+0.734	±0.009 (+0.725..+0.743)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.266)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 58918962 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 31 seconds

a score pass right on gammons burt much more wins

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

But what about 4 Away - 2 Away? Now it's a heavy pass.

		White is Player 2 score: 7 pip: 132 11 point match pip: 144 score: 9 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---CBCC---cB---aabbAb-bA:0:0:-1:00:9:7:0:11:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	53.39% (G:32.90% B:0.51%)	53.90% (G:33.16% B:0.74%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	46.61% (G:12.68% B:1.09%)	46.10% (G:12.80% B:1.68%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.162	+1.324
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.648 (-0.352)	±0.012 (+0.635..+0.660)
Double/Take:	+1.324 (+0.324)	±0.019 (+1.305..+1.342)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60633146 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• 2 Away - 5 Away // Take or Pass
  Steven E. Carey -- Thursday, 2 August 2018, at 5:38 p.m.
  • 2 Away - 5 Away // Take or Pass
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 2 August 2018, at 6:21 p.m.
  • 2 Away - 5 Away // Take or Pass
    Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 2 August 2018, at 7:16 p.m.
  • 2 Away - 5 Away // Take or Pass
    hominid -- Thursday, 2 August 2018, at 11:06 p.m.
  • 2 Away - 5 Away // Take or Pass
    Neil Robins -- Friday, 3 August 2018, at 11:17 p.m.
  • 2 Away - 5 Away // Take or Pass
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 5 August 2018, at 12:44 a.m.
  • 2 Away - 5 Away // Take or Pass RO
    Steven E. Carey -- Monday, 6 August 2018, at 8:51 p.m.