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Estimating racing chances

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 9:02 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating racing chances (Albert Steg)

Here's one way. 1st use the Isight adjustments which penalize Blue 3 pips for the extra outfield crossovers. Then plug 74-98 into Kleinman's D squared/S racing formula. D is the difference between the 2 pip counts and S is their sum. You first subtract 4 from the side on roll so it becomes 70-98. D squared/S is then 784/168 = 4.67. A ratio of 4.0 converts to about 92% GWC while 5.0 is 95% so 4.67 is about 94%.

So Blue wins 15 of 100 games by hitting and about 6% of the other 85 = 20.1/100. Pretty close!

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