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Rollout: Rolling home a prime with XG (part 2)

Posted By: David Levy
Date: Thursday, 20 September 2018, at 3:22 p.m.

In Response To: Rolling home a prime with XG (part 2) (David Levy)

Despite, the results in XG+ (redouble is a 1.13 error) and XG++ (.28 error), this still seems like a redouble to me with the take in question. A rollout still shows redouble to be an error, but only .03:





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 70
9 point match
pip: 123
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBD--A---a-bbbbbbAb----:1:-1:-1:D:1:2:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.92% (G:4.35% B:0.09%) 73.50% (G:4.54% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.08% (G:6.16% B:0.02%) 26.50% (G:9.13% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.495 +0.790
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.696±0.008 (+0.688..+0.704)
Redouble/Take:+0.667 (-0.030)±0.017 (+0.649..+0.684)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.304)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.2%
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 35 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I do wonder whether the subsequent checker play makes the rollout unreliable.

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