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Rollout: Rolling home a prime with XG (Results for Money)

Posted By: Justin Nowell
Date: Friday, 21 September 2018, at 6:04 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Rolling home a prime with XG (part 2) (David Levy)

I ran this position for money and the results from ++ to a rollout vary by a lot.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 70
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BaBBBBBB-A---a--dbbcb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.64% (G:3.85% B:0.05%) 73.15% (G:4.25% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.36% (G:5.48% B:0.02%) 26.85% (G:7.95% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.557 +0.855
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.796
Redouble/Take:+0.731 (-0.066)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.204)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 70
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BaBBBBBB-A---a--dbbcb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.82% (G:4.30% B:0.08%) 76.42% (G:4.69% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.18% (G:6.26% B:0.02%) 23.58% (G:6.99% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.517 +1.013
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.733 (-0.203)±0.022 (+0.711..+0.756)
Redouble/Take:+0.936±0.042 (+0.894..+0.978)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.064)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.9%
Duration: 4 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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