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Rollout and VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 22 November 2018, at 6:39 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Neil Robins)

		White is XG Roller+ score: 0 pip: 147 7 point match pip: 116 score: 4 Blue is Neil
XGID=---bB-DCC---cC-a-c-bbb----:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Original position

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.58% (G:5.36% B:0.11%)	79.85% (G:5.59% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.42% (G:1.43% B:0.05%)	20.15% (G:1.44% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.632	+1.240
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.971 (-0.029)	�0.005 (+0.966..+0.977)
Double/Take:	+1.014 (+0.014)	�0.006 (+1.008..+1.020)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 71284 First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 52 seconds

Neil Robins' rollout of his original position is shown above. It's a small Pass.

The variant below is a small No Double.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 7 point match pip: 119 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bB-DC-C--cC-a-c-bbb----:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Variant (Blue owns his 9pt instead of his 8pt)

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	77.56% (G:4.67% B:0.13%)	77.92% (G:4.78% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.44% (G:1.84% B:0.08%)	22.08% (G:1.81% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.581	+1.142
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.902	±0.005 (+0.896..+0.907)
Double/Take:	+0.891 (-0.010)	±0.007 (+0.884..+0.898)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.098)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.8%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 7407006 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		99.2%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 55 minutes 50 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Cube Action?
  Neil Robins -- Monday, 29 October 2018, at 5:19 p.m.
  • Cube Action?
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 30 October 2018, at 4:08 a.m.
  • Cube Action?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 30 October 2018, at 2:05 p.m.
  • Cube Action?
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 30 October 2018, at 8:05 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 31 October 2018, at 9:11 p.m.
    • Rollout
      ah_clem -- Tuesday, 6 November 2018, at 1:48 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 6 November 2018, at 5:42 p.m.
        • Rollout
          ah_clem -- Wednesday, 7 November 2018, at 2:03 a.m.
          • Rollout
            Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 7 November 2018, at 9:32 p.m.
          • Rollout
            Hans Marius Eikseth -- Wednesday, 21 November 2018, at 12:49 p.m.
    • Rollout and VARIANT
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 22 November 2018, at 6:39 p.m.