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BGonline.org Forums
Effect of Stalemate=Win rule
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Reducing the draw percentage (Nack Ballard)
Date: Sunday, 9 December 2018, at 1:39 a.m.
I looked at the final positions of all twelve games, and the four main Stockfish lines that extend them. As we know in Game 12, Carlssen offered a draw when he was clearly better (widely believed to be a mistake despite his impending tie-break edge), but no doubt he would have done so even if stalemate were a win. In the other eleven games...
Games 6, 7, 8, 9 and 11 look like clear draws without any stalemate prospects that I can see.
Games 4 and 5 are equal material and most likely draws but in both cases I think White's small positional advantage (one by Carlssen, the other by Caruana) is worth pressing if stalemate is a win.
Games 1, 2 and 10 are R-and-P endings where one side has an extra pawn (Carlssen +.19 edge in one, Caruana edges of .67 and +.96 in two others). These are clearly worth pressing if stalemate is a win, and I'll explain by example:
Even in the game with only a +.19 pawn advantage (Game 1), let's say that Black (Carlssen) plays ...c5 and exchanges pawns, then is later somehow able to force an exchange of rooks. As long as White keeps Black from playing his K in front of his pawn, Black cannot gain the opposition and it is a draw by the regular rules. However, if stalemating is a win, then Black wins all those mundane K+P endings where White can routinely freeze himself on the first rank.
Caruana's edge in the other R-and-P endings with an extra pawn is much greater than .19, and if stalemating is a win I would guess he rates to average 1.5 of those games or a bit more.
Game 3 was a win for Black (Carlssen) if stalemating is a win. It is headed for a simple B + opp-color R-pawn (normally considered a draw because White can stalemate himself in front of the R pawn).
In summary, out of twelve games, the stalemate=win rule would have turned Game 3 into a win for Carlssen, and I believe one or both of Games 2 and 10 into wins for Caruana, and Games 1, 4 and 5 were worth playing further for a while (though likely still draws).
With stalemate=win in effect, had Caruana won both Games 2 and 10 (with Carlssen winning game 3 and the other eight drawn, as seems reasonable), that would have put Carlssen into a must-win situation in Game 12 in order to reach the tie-breaks. That would have been an exciting finale to the classic portion of the championship.
Nack
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