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Effect of Stalemate=Win rule

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 9 December 2018, at 2:43 a.m.

In Response To: Effect of Stalemate=Win rule (Nack Ballard)

Nack,

I don't think that this analysis makes any sense because if the stalemate rule (or as I prefer to express it, the checkmate rule) were changed, then we can't assume that Carlsen and Caruana would have played as they actually did. In any top-level game, players have a huge store of "known drawn positions" in their minds, and they will steer their play accordingly, sometimes as early as the opening phase of the game. If you make a large change to that database of known drawn positions then their steering will be affected.

The only real way to test the effect on the draw rate of changing the checkmate rule is to try it. But heuristically, I would expect there to be little effect. The set of drawn positions will indeed be noticeably reduced. But chess will still be fundamentally a drawn game, and you'll still need a large advantage to win a game, which will happen at about the same rate as currently.

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