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Why Not Pass?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 15 December 2018, at 4:57 a.m.

In Response To: Why Not Pass? (Marv Porten)

There are many problems with your analysis.

i) In a match look at the MET instead of just using the 3-1 risk - rewards ratio. This does give a take point close to 25% but not exactly. If you use the KazXG2 table it gives 25.31% as takepoint at 13a 13a for example.

ii) You do not know that the next 7 games will come down to that exact same situation.

iii) If somehow you did know that then the MET is not applicable anymore.

iv) The average equity of the different possibilities is not equal to the equity of the most likely result. With that logic you would NEVER take a cube as an underdog.

Suppose it is a 45% position in the first game of a 22 point match. If it occurs 20 times you could drop it each time and be down 0 - 20 and maintain some small win chance. Or you could take it each time, on average win 9 times and lose 11 for a loss of the match. Your logic says therefore you should drop the 45% position at 22away - 222away.

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