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Confirmation!

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 8:42 p.m.

In Response To: Confirmation! (Marv Porten)

I know. But 1) those are based on a 28% gammon rate and 2) the vast majority of cubes are not last roll positions so the trailer can win more than 2 points/game by taking a 2 cube. These 2 factors make it easier for the trailer to catch up and win the match from any given score than if he always gets doubled in a non-gammonish last roll position.

IMO the absence of g's and cube vig lower the trailer's MWC at any score than what they would be in regular bg. Since the dead cube tp's are just slightly over 25% in regular bg, it seems that they would be less than 25% once the trailer is down by a few points in the match.

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