[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Confirmation!

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Saturday, 29 December 2018, at 11:32 a.m.

In Response To: Confirmation! (Marv Porten)

If you knew every game of the match would end in this position, the only way you could win would be to take! One of the flaws in your logic is in assuming the doubler will win exactly 75%. In the long run, he will average that, but your logic, essentially awards him 1.5 points per game and the taker .5 points per game. This methodology over-rewards the doubler, as variance favors the taker. Using your methodology, if the the cube was taken in the first 8 games of a 13-point match, the doubler would lead 12-4, having won 6 games. In reality, there will be variance. His expectation is to win 6 games, but he is a big favorite to not win exactly 6. He will usually win 4,5,6,7,or 8 games, but occasionally win 0 to 3 games. Variance favors the underdog, as the leader gains very little equity by winning 7 or 8 of the 8 games, but loses a lot of equity when he wins 5 or fewer of them.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.