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Confirmation!

Posted By: TarHeelFan
Date: Saturday, 29 December 2018, at 8:36 p.m.

In Response To: Confirmation! (Marv Porten)

Actually, without offering a proof, I suspect Joe's statement is correct. I.e., If I knew that every game in the match (not just the first 8) were going to reach a 25% position, I would certainly take every one of them.

Obviously, we don't know that, and the correct action is drop. The example Joe gave was just another way to illustrate that your reasoning is fundamentally flawed, regardless of whether you drew the right conclusion.

Your statement about the best chance to win assumes that we do not know that subsequent games will reach a 25% position.

Messages In This Thread

• Why Not Pass?
  Marv Porten -- Friday, 14 December 2018, at 6:38 a.m.
  • Why Not Pass?
    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 14 December 2018, at 8:09 a.m.
    • Why Not Pass?
      Marv Porten -- Saturday, 15 December 2018, at 12:28 a.m.
      • Clarification
        Marv Porten -- Saturday, 15 December 2018, at 1:13 a.m.
      • Why Not Pass?
        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 15 December 2018, at 4:57 a.m.
        • Why Not Pass?
          Marv Porten -- Saturday, 15 December 2018, at 5:58 a.m.
          • Why Not Pass?
            Michael -- Saturday, 15 December 2018, at 8:34 p.m.
            • Confirmation!
              Marv Porten -- Saturday, 15 December 2018, at 11:01 p.m.
              • Confirmation!
                Michael -- Sunday, 16 December 2018, at 11:04 a.m.
              • Confirmation!
                Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 16 December 2018, at 12:04 p.m.
              • Confirmation!
                John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 1:35 p.m.
                • Confirmation!
                  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 1:54 p.m.
                  • Confirmation!
                    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 3:23 p.m.
                    • Confirmation!
                      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 3:37 p.m.
                      • Confirmation!
                        John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 5:48 p.m.
                        • Confirmation!
                          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 December 2018, at 12:28 a.m.
                          • Confirmation!
                            John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 20 December 2018, at 2:11 a.m.
                • Confirmation!
                  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 6:26 p.m.
                • Confirmation!
                  Marv Porten -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 6:37 p.m.
                  • Confirmation!
                    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 8:42 p.m.
                  • Confirmation!
                    Joe Russell -- Saturday, 29 December 2018, at 11:30 a.m.
                  • Confirmation!
                    Joe Russell -- Saturday, 29 December 2018, at 11:32 a.m.
                    • Confirmation!
                      Bill Finneran -- Saturday, 29 December 2018, at 11:51 a.m.
                      • Confirmation!
                        Marv Porten -- Saturday, 29 December 2018, at 7:27 p.m.
                        • Confirmation!
                          Bob Koca -- Monday, 31 December 2018, at 5:10 a.m.
                          • Confirmation!
                            Marv Porten -- Monday, 31 December 2018, at 11:21 p.m.
                    • Confirmation!
                      Marv Porten -- Saturday, 29 December 2018, at 7:18 p.m.
                      • Confirmation!
                        TarHeelFan -- Saturday, 29 December 2018, at 8:36 p.m.
                        • Confirmation!
                          Marv Porten -- Saturday, 29 December 2018, at 9:06 p.m.
                          • Confirmation!
                            TarHeelFan -- Saturday, 29 December 2018, at 11:02 p.m.
                • Confirmation!
                  David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 25 December 2018, at 5:42 a.m.
  • Why Not Pass?
    Michael Nielsen -- Sunday, 16 December 2018, at 5:07 p.m.
  • Why Not Pass?
    Florin Popa -- Monday, 17 December 2018, at 12:30 a.m.
  • Why Not Pass?
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 17 December 2018, at 3:30 a.m.
    • proved !?
      Florin Popa -- Monday, 17 December 2018, at 11:06 a.m.
    • Why Not Pass?
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 17 December 2018, at 3:45 p.m.
      • Why Not Pass?
        Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 17 December 2018, at 8:27 p.m.
  • Why Not Pass?
    Joseph Pregler -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 6:14 p.m.
    • Why Not Pass?
      Marv Porten -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 6:31 p.m.
      • Why Not Pass?
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 6:51 p.m.
        • Why Not Pass?
          Marv Porten -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 7:09 p.m.
          • Why Not Pass?
            Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 19 December 2018, at 7:20 p.m.
    • Why Not Pass?
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 31 December 2018, at 6:13 p.m.
  • Clarification
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 12:21 a.m.
    • Clarification
      Marv Porten -- Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 2:14 a.m.
      • Clarification
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 5:07 a.m.
        • Clarification
          Joe Russell -- Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 7:18 a.m.
          • Clarification
            Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 8:14 a.m.
        • Clarification
          Marv Porten -- Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 6:26 p.m.
          • Clarification
            Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 7:21 p.m.
            • P.S.
              Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 8:06 p.m.
              • P.S.
                Marv Porten -- Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 9:05 p.m.
  • Why Not Pass?
    Joe Russell -- Sunday, 30 December 2018, at 7:06 a.m.